5. Probability of Competition
In the brow business, the success of scarcity-based campaigns is significantly influenced by the perceived competition—that someone else might claim the limited item, solution, or appointment time before them. On social media, two criteria create this sense of competition: a) visible public engagement with the campaign, evidenced through likes, shares, comments, and views, and b) the unavailability of certain offered items during the campaign. The absence of these elements can reduce scarcity's impact, potentially undermining the campaign.
Consider two examples from our study. First, an artist with a substantial following offers five model seats on Instagram or Facebook. If the post quickly gains considerable likes, receives comments, and the artist announces that one or two slots are already taken, the potential for increased buyer interest is significant. In this case, the perception of scarcity can boost the likelihood of interested buyers reaching out by 50-200%. Here, scarcity works in the artist's favor.
Conversely, if an artist with a smaller following posts about "last available booking times" but the post garners only a few likes, no comments, and shows no signs of competition, the scarcity strategy may not be effective. Worse still, if potential customers notice similar posts, especially those claiming the exact "last available times," it raises doubts. Such scenarios can turn scarcity against the artist. Prospective customers, noticing the lack of social proof, might question the quality or popularity of the service and decide not to engage, associating the scant engagement with lower service quality or diminished demand for the offered solutions.
